In my post a few days ago I had mentioned a survey who source I could not reveal, except that the BSP is looking at these figures. Truth be told, I don’t know who conducted that survey. But, to back the conclusions, I had a little more than just that survey.
This morning, CSDS-Lokniti has published some prelimnary results of the National Election Studies 2009. The figures about UP, a lot more detailed than the ‘informal’ survey I put out, are different and even contradictory in several respects from the ones I had put out.
According to this, the Jatav vote declined by an insignificant 1.3% for the BSP, and the non-Jatav Dalit vote actually rose by a significant 9.9%. The article accompanying the above table is here (.pdf).
In which case I wonder why Mayawati is ‘returning to the Dalit agenda’, as several news reports coming from Lucknow seem to suggest. Elsewhere, even this CSDS study says:
Dalit supporters are also beginning to be resentful: 46 per cent of Dalits believe Ms. Mayawati has ignored their aspirations… [Link – .pdf]
One possibility is that this survey, or for that matter the one I had posted, don’t revela how many Dalit voters did not come out to vote. If that statistic were available, it may perhaps be revealing.
Sometimes it all gets so confusing – perhaps one should look constituency by constituency and forget state-wise aggregations. Nevertheless, the nationwide study is worth your time.