CSDS data on caste voting patterns in UP LS ’09 elections

csdsdataupls09In my post a few days ago I had mentioned a survey who source I could not reveal, except that the BSP is looking at these figures. Truth be told, I don’t know who conducted that survey. But, to back the conclusions, I had a little more than just that survey.

This morning, CSDS-Lokniti has published some prelimnary results of the National Election Studies 2009. The figures about UP, a lot more detailed than the ‘informal’ survey I put out, are different and even contradictory in several respects from the ones I had put out.

According to this, the Jatav vote declined by an insignificant 1.3% for the BSP, and the non-Jatav Dalit vote actually rose by a significant 9.9%. The article accompanying the above table is here (.pdf).

In which case I wonder why Mayawati is ‘returning to the Dalit agenda’, as several news reports coming from Lucknow seem to suggest. Elsewhere, even this CSDS study says:

Dalit supporters are also beginning to be resentful: 46 per cent of Dalits believe Ms. Mayawati has ignored their aspirations… [Link – .pdf]

One possibility is that this survey, or for that matter the one I had posted, don’t revela how many Dalit voters did not come out to vote. If that statistic were available, it may perhaps be revealing.

Sometimes it all gets so confusing – perhaps one should look constituency by constituency and forget state-wise aggregations. Nevertheless, the nationwide study is worth your time.

5 thoughts on “CSDS data on caste voting patterns in UP LS ’09 elections”

  1. Why do you keep mum on the casteist and communalist trends in the so-called psephological studies? Is this not mischievously reactionary? Why don’t they study votiing according to household earning/expenditure ranges?

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    1. How long,you hindus will hide the facts that India is a racist country and hindus are most racist person on earth.Dear ray person like you or your cousins will go to unitednation and tell the world that India is a not a racist country and give the example of hindu bum lickers,now one more name has beeb added Meera Kumar.

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  2. Dalits require seprate electorate so they can send their own candidates who were work for dalits .It is sad story in India about reserved seats ,dalits are not able to send their true candidates because ,dalit votes get devided and hindus bum lickers are winning the election in reserved seats.

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  3. Does the huge swing of Lodhs away from the BJP suggest that Kalyan Singh’s outfit hurt the party more this time around? Note that negative swing is mostly co-extensive with the Lodh swing in favor of the SP (in turn, mostly balanced out by the Muslim swing away from the SP; a political reality neatly incarnated in the spat between Azam Khan and Amar Singh, namely the difficulty for the SP in holding on to its standing in both constituencies).

    Fascinatingly, the BJP seems to have more than doubled its share of the Muslim vote in UP…

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  4. A philosophy point. We always analyze what we can measure. Good in itself, but we forget what we have not measured. Why did so many people not vote? What is the breakup of non-voters in UP & the nation? Are some castes and vote banks losing out because they did not vote? Would the results be quite different if they had voted? It would be interesting to know.

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