The vagaries of the first-past-the-poll system in India make sure that we often over- or under-estimate the meaning of election results going strictly by who’s won how many seats. But if you go by factors such as vote share and seat-by-seat break-up, you will see the complexity of any election result. Once the results are out, the psephologist disappears. But that’s when he should be there.
Given below is a break-up of 33 of Gujarat’s constituencies, as circulated by an activist. Makes for interesting observations.
| CONSTITUENCY |
BJP VOTE |
CONGRESS VOTE |
DIFFERENCE |
BSP |
IND |
|
| 1 | RAJPIPLA |
37722 |
37091 |
631 |
2807 |
|
| 2 | MANDAL |
34843 |
34166 |
677 |
|
3818 |
| 3 | KHAMBHALIA |
40358 |
39560 |
798 |
|
4275 |
| 4 | KANKREJ |
37930 |
37090 |
840 |
28934 |
|
| 5 | JAMNAGAR |
33021 |
31941 |
1080 |
|
1098 |
| 6 | KADI |
65835 |
64508 |
1327 |
|
3848 |
| 7 | GADHADA |
50579 |
49152 |
1427 |
1478 |
|
| 8 | SURAT CITY |
39607 |
37908 |
1699 |
|
RJD-2584 |
| 9 | ANAND |
63745 |
61975 |
1770 |
|
12134 |
| 10 | KALOL |
27565 |
25255 |
1884 |
|
1427+1016 |
| 11 | CHIKHLI |
59471 |
57204 |
2267 |
2708 |
|
| 12 | SIDHPUR |
52610 |
50181 |
2429 |
|
2694 |
| 13 | MANGROL |
48256 |
45625 |
2631 |
3389 |
2782 |
| 14 | BOTAD |
69662 |
66474 |
3188 |
2134 |
3188 |
| 15 | VIRAMGAM |
47643 |
44327 |
3316 |
3286 |
3364 |
| 16 | MANSA |
44381 |
41011 |
3370 |
|
10478 |
| 17 | GANDHINAGAR |
81864 |
78116 |
3748 |
1766 |
5128 |
| 18 | RAKHIAL |
53993 |
50048 |
3945 |
1395 |
This was admitted in a news item by Pioneer, castigating BSP as a vote-katwa party. It was carried the day after the results were out.
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